Regional elections in Andalucía on Sunday, May 17th are being closely watched across Spain, with opinion polls suggesting the conservative People’s Party could secure another strong victory in the country’s most populous region. The vote is likely to be seen as passing judgement on Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Spain’s left-wing governing coalition.

The regional leader of the People’s Party, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, is seeking an outright majority after positioning himself as a moderate conservative alternative to both the national conservative VOX party and the Socialist-led government in Madrid. Polls suggest the Socialists could suffer one of their worst-ever results in Andalucía, a region they dominated politically for decades before losing power in 2019.

Moreno is hoping another absolute majority will mean he does not need to depend on VOX, which has been seeking to influence the PP to move further to the right in regional coalitions,

While VOX insists Spaniards receive priority over foreign-born people for housing and public services both Moreno and the PP’s national leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, are keen to use Sunday’s vote to make the most of the scandals engulfing the national government.

Although Moreno has tried to distance himself from VOX’s anti-immigration policies, the election is also being closely monitored as a test of the populist upsurge in European politics. 

The campaign has focused heavily on healthcare, housing affordability and economic pressures, while corruption allegations against Sánchez’s national government have also shaped the political debate. Analysts say the result could offer an early indication of voter sentiment ahead of Spain’s next general election.