For years, Brussels has argued consistently that Europe’s migration system requires major reform. The 2015 crisis highlighted the limits of a framework unable to cope with large-scale arrivals, and since then, pressure on the European Union’s external borders has steadily increased.

A new report by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), seen by Euronews, suggests that tighter EU border controls and migration deals with African countries have not reduced departures from Africa, but only temporarily diverted illegal routes.

The report argues that 

intensified controls do not necessarily reduce overall mobility but instead redirect movement towards alternative, often longer and riskier routes.

It adds that tightening border controls is expected to further reshape routes in 2026 “without fundamentally reducing overall mobility levels.”

In recent years, the EU has expanded migration partnerships with countries including Egypt, Mauritania, Morocco, Senegal,  and Tunisia, combining financial support and development projects with stronger border enforcement. 

Arrivals to Europe have decreased only temporarily. Data from Frontex shows illegal border crossings at the EU’s external borders fell by over 25% in 2025, with the sharpest decline along the Western African route.

However, the ICMPD report notes that migration routes have shifted rather than disappeared, with departures now increasingly taking place from countries such as Gambia and Guinea instead of Mauritania, making journeys longer and more dangerous.